Once again today, purportedly boosted by longer term views of re-opening economies, equities across the board rose; especially emerging markets. The EM rally was likely driven by the expectation of oil production cuts.
Today’s positive move means the S&P is only a few percent from cracking positive on the year, which boggles my mind given all that has transpired this year to date.
This rally makes me very concerned for the future return for US markets as we have seemed to jump ahead of reality; things are bad. We are still in the midst of a global pandemic that has stopped foreign and the US economies in their tracks. We have not yet seen the true impact to corporate earnings yet, and global effects could be long lasting.
At the same time we are embroiled in a generational protest movement that demands, and should get, change. These are both major issues that our markets seem to be ignoring.
My perception is that these headwinds will be OK, until they aren’t. I think we are on the precipice of a major shift in markets; and if I could call the timing I would! I can’t, but I’d guess that volatility is here to stay.
Investors can protect themselves from this volatility by creating a diversified portfolio, not beholden to the fates of US equities. Our work is to help clients achieve just that.